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Date: 11/18/2013

Title: A Peek into Early December

At this moment in time a year ago, winter was having a hard time getting going. November 2012 was a warm month of most of the lower 48 states with very little in the way of winter weather reported for most of the month. So far, November 2013 has been colder and more stormy than last November. Can we expect this trend to continue and carry forward into the month of December?

The answer is yes. While there have been episodes of colder weather this month, any cold snap has been brief. However, that is about ready to change. Beginning later this week and gaining momentum late Thanksgiving week get ready for much colder temperatures across most of the nation from the Rockies and points east.

There will be more winter weather taking place between now and through the month of December than we experienced for the same time period of last year. Stock growers will be digging into hay supplies early this year. This will be especially true in the areas outlined below.

The silver lining in this cold and sometimes snowy outlook for late November and early December is that snow pack, which is already off to a good start should continue to grow as we head into the end of November and through December. Near or above normal snow pack levels will be likely in many areas as we head into the New Year.

There are big differences in large scale weather patterns across the globe as compared to this  time last year. Such as:

1. Water temperatures in the Pacific are warmer than last winter (which actually can lead to colder, more stormy winters).
2. Low solar activity could lead to jet stream blocking, which in turn can lead to longer lasting cold air outbreaks.
3. #1 and #2 above can work together to bring a very active winter pattern to most of the lower 48 states this winter.