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Date: 5/19/2014

Title: Southern Plains Rain

Finally there is some good news for some of the very dry areas of the central and southern plains of the U.S. For stock growers in Kansas, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma and portions of New Mexico we are happy to report that the next one to two weeks will bring the best chances for widespread rain since this past winter.

A slow moving area of low pressure will move into the Great Basin this week and will take several days to traverse the southern Rockies and southern plains. The slow movement of the storm system combined with a good inflow of moisture from the south should result in an increasing threat for rain and thunderstorm activity this week, this weekend and perhaps again the following week.

At the moment,  the best chances for widespread rain and thunderstorm activity will be in Texas and Oklahoma, however, rain and thunderstorm activity will also develop across eastern New Mexico, eastern Colorado and many areas, if not all of Nebraska.

Rains will also impact areas recently hit by rain and spring snow across northern Colorado and eastern Wyoming.
This system is a good indication that we are in the early stages of a developing weak to moderate El Nino weather pattern as we head into the remainder of 2014 and into early 2015. The developing El Nino is good news for the central and southern plains and southern Rockies and more precipitation chances are likely to follow as we head into June and possibly July.

Rain chances will also improve for California and the Desert Southwest as well, however, the best rain chances in those two areas will likely come later this year and into early 2015.

Rainfall amounts in the above mentioned areas will likely range from 1.00 to 3.00” in the heavier areas of rain and thunderstorms will many other areas receiving .50 to 1.00” of rainfall.

Long range trends also look favorable for the central and southern plains and southern Rockies as we head into June.