Your membership has expired, click here to renew!


Date: 8/8/2016

Title: Quiet Tropical Season So Far

The lack of tropical storm and hurricane activity this year and in recent years is beginning to raise some eyebrows.

The USA is long overdue to be hit by tropical storm and hurricane activity, especially when you take these facts into account.

  1. A major hurricane has not hit the U.S. Gulf or East Coast in more than a decade. The streak has reached 3,940 days, longer than any previous hurricane 'drought' by nearly two years. 
  2. The state of Florida hasn’t seen a hurricane of any intensity since Wilma in 2005, although it averages about seven hurricane landfalls per decade. The current hurricane drought, nearing 11 years, is almost twice as long as the previous longest drought of six years (1979-1985). Sixty-seven hurricanes have tracked through the Atlantic since Florida’s last hurricane impact. 
  3. The Gulf of Mexico has been hurricane-free for almost three full years, the longest period since record-keeping began in 1851. The most recent hurricane to hit the Gulf  Coast was Ingrid in September 2013.

The 2016 hurricane season is still young and there are areas of warm waters that can help enhance tropical storm and hurricane development. In particular there are areas of above normal water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the East Coast. Therefore, we could break the hurricane drought before the season is over.

So far, most of the activity has been in the eastern Pacific where the residual warm El Nino waters are enhancing storm activity.

Tropical storm Javier is headed to the Baja of California and some of the remnants of Javier may impact portions of the Southwest USA in the coming week.