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Date: 4/30/2019

Title: El Nino Update

Soon we will be leaving the time of year that El Nino will be impacting our weather patterns across North America. For most of the winter season and early spring, a very weak El Nino weather pattern has persisted.

At times this winter, El Nino faded in strength before increasing in intensity at the end of the winter and early spring. The graphic below shows the increasing strength of El Nino this past fall, then a weakening in December, January and February before increasing in strength in March and early April.

The weakening El Nino in January and February aided in the development of the Polar Vortex early in the winter while the strengthening El Nino in March and April aided in the big snowstorms that hit the Rockies and Plains in March and April.

By late spring and early summer, El Nino naturally fades and is hard to forecast, however, the long-range forecasts for the rest of 2019 shows a very flat trend looking ahead. This type of forecast trend indicates the fall and winter of 2019-2020 could go either to a continued El Nino or possible La Nina. We will update you later this summer and fall on whether we will have an El Nino or La Nina.