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Date: 7/8/2019

Title: El Nino Update

During a summer season El Nino or La Nina will usually fade from view and this summer is no exception. The high sun angle and the warmer temperatures of a summer season will interact with sea surface temperatures to alter an established El Nino or La Nina.

The graphic below shows sea surface temperature anomalies across the globe. Blue represents cooler than normal, and yellow/orange above normal temperatures, white represents near normal. Notice the area of blue near South America and along and west of the equator. The cooler water temperatures indicate that there is no more El Nino. In the northern hemisphere, the rest of the Pacific is a bit warmer than normal, however the warmer waters are out of the El Nino/La Nina zone of influence.

The cooler Pacific waters and the warmer Gulf of Mexico is conducive to tropical storm/hurricane development, possibly as early as next week. 

The heat content of the Pacific has also decreased.  The graphic below shows the peak of the El Nino late 2018 through April. There was another small peak in May and June before falling off again in July. 

With El Nino fading for the rest of the summer the impacts of the warmer subtropical Pacific waters will have less of an impact on the weather across the USA for the rest of July through September.