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Date: 1/20/2020

Title: Short Term and Long Term Trends

Both long short term and long-term trends for precipitation across the lower 48 states are encouraging as we head into the second half of winter and into spring 2020. While there are dry areas in the Pacific Northwest and across portions of the Southern Plains, soil moisture conditions may improve through the rest of the winter season and into the start of the spring season.

The graphic below shows the above normal soil moisture profiles in the upper Midwest and Great Lakes (green and blue) as well as in parts of the southeast. The yellow areas show the relative dryness in the Pacific Northwest and eastern Texas.

The short term outlook shows near severe dryness expected to develop over the next month.

A similar pattern shows up in the long-term trend. The graphic below shows no severe drought is expected to develop through the beginning of spring. There is some concern the dryness in the Pacific Northwest and eastern Texas, however most of the rest of the nation has a good chance for good soil moisture heading into spring.