El Nino/La Nina Update
Sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific continue to show very weak El Nino or neutral conditions as we head into the second half of February. While SSTs are slightly warmer near the equator across the Pacific, temperatures have decreased in parts of the Pacific.
The graphic below shows the change in SSTs since November. The blue and purple areas show where the SSTs have decreased. Note the drop in temperatures across the Gulf of Alaska and the central Pacific. There has been slight warmer (green/yellow) in the key El Nino area west of South America. Overall, however, SSTs have been decreasing in many areas of the Pacific since November.
Long range predictions suggest a very week El Nino or neutral conditions for the remainder of winter and into early spring. SSTs may drop off enough for weak La Nina status by late summer/early fall as you can see in the graphic below.
There is an increasing chance for colder SSTs to develop by summer and fall. This is something we will keep a close watch on.