Your membership has expired, click here to renew!


Date: 12/28/2020

Title: La Nina Update

Since this past spring we have talked a lot about La Nina and its impact on the weather and climate across North America. The colder than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean can impact temperature patterns and especially precipitation patterns across North America.

Current state of La Nina remains strong as sea surface temperatures remain colder than normal in the tropics. In the graphic below you can see the all the blue and green areas west of South America.

The long-range forecasts continue to show a high probability that La Nina will persist through winter and into the beginning of spring. The table below shows the probabilities of La Nina persisting.

Note that there is a 98% chance of La Nina continuing through February and 92% chance through March. It is not until after April that La Nina begins to weaken. It is not likely that La Nina will end anytime soon, and it is also possible it could persist through all of 2021.

With La Nina persisting, continue to expect drier than normal conditions in the Southwest, Southern Rockies and parts of the Southern Plains. Above normal precipitation in the Pacific Northwest will continue and expect more stormy weather in the Midwest and East.